Historically, what happens to stocks during ghost month?
#1

Ive been seeing lots of references to the coming so-called Ghost Month this August... Even business articles and professional analysts mention it and apparently include it in their analysis. So clearly, this is a serious factor to consider.

I know what the Ghost Month is .. The Chinese are highly supertitious about this month so they dont schedule things like weddings, baptisms, house blessings and even travel abroad during this period.

But since im a newbie at Stocks, i dont kow how they applynthis to their stocks...

Do they unload their stocks beforebthis month? ( i doubt it)

Or do they simply STOP MAKING TRANSACTIONS at this point?

How many percentage of stock players are chinese anyway? I dont think EVERY chinese would follow this? But then if the likes of Henry Sy, Lucio Tan, Gokongwei etc suddenly influence their investment and holding firms.... Then i can see the problem.

FOR THE VETERANS HERE, in the past years, what goes on during this month? Shares go up? Down? Sideways? Steady? Is it a time of weakness or opportunity?

Hope some folks can share their experiences for us newbies Smile
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#2
For the hardcore chinese, they don't suddenly sell off all their holdings during/before/after the ghost month, but they do "refrain" from doing any trading during this period. This means no selling and buying.

I cannot answer for the other taipans, but the children of tatang do not really believe in "ghost month".
buy high, sell higher!

stock market abbreviations (for newbies)
http://www.stockmarketpilipinas.com/post...g#pid11738

"when it comes to trading, i'm just barely smart enough to realize that i'm a total idiot. i might be considered stupid, but on the intelligence scale, it puts me comfortably ahead of all the dumber people who thinks they're better than me."


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#3
If someone can give me the exact dates of the the ghost months for the last 7-10 years, gawan ko ng study similar din sa "sell on may, and go away" study ko.
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#4
curious din ako nito...kung ano ang mangyayari during aughost month..hehehe

inputs from the veterans and gurus are highly appreciated.

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#5
(07-29-2011, 04:28 PM)gbk Wrote: If someone can give me the exact dates of the the ghost months for the last 7-10 years, gawan ko ng study similar din sa "sell on may, and go away" study ko.

Ghost Festival starts on the 15th day of the 7th month in the Chinese Lunar Calendar, so each year nagbabago (just like Chinese New Year). But they say 7th month in general (even before the 15th day) is considered "bad luck". So im not sure when "bad luck" starts in Stock Trading. 7thd month Day 1? or 7th month Day 15?

Here are the Ghost Festival start days (15th day) for the past 3 years+this year..

Aug 15, 2008
Sep 3, 2009
Aug 24, 2010
Aug 14, 2011

I guess it ends 30 days afterwards.

3 years lang na search ko, but if you really want 10 year study, hahanapin ko talaga... hehe

sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Festival

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_calendar

What I think is interesting is, CORRECT ME IF IM WRONG, Stock Market forums (as in yung dedicated talaga) in the Phil are relatively new.. SMP is just new lang di ba? Smile and the other site(s) I think are also new.

I wonder if they ever tackled this issue or gave it serious thought..

So again, im asking for the Veteran players who've been around for years to share their experiences naman..

As I said, i didnt imagine it to have an impact in stocks pero mismong mga analysts are taking this into account sa mga analysis nila. So napaisip-isip na tuloy ako Big Grin




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#6
Thanks for the info sir. I will start from there. If anyone can give me 00 - 07 ha. = )
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#7
Sabi nila mga blue chips daw di masyado gagalaw...pero ang mga bazuras daw magiging wild!...awoooooo.... ewe! oG rwp!
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#8
Oo nga ano ba nangyayari talga sa ganito buwan, puro sabi sabi lang at tsismis ang naririnig ko (palibhaasa baguhan sa market)

pero sa aking pagkakaalam, takot ang mga chinese kapag ghost month dahil baka dalawin at dalhan sila ng MALAS ng mga namatay na di pumasok sa langit o walang maayos na burol. lalo na sa ika 15 ng buwan lahat sila halos ayaw ng lumabas ng bahay.

Pero para sa akin ok naman kasi parating may pakain kapag Ghost Month =)

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#9
eto mga sirs para sa project nyo

ghost months using gregorian calendar

2011 Jul 31 - Aug 28
2010 Aug 10 - Sep 7
2009 Aug 20 - Sep 18
2008 Jul 1 - Jul 30
2007 Aug 20 - Sep 10
2006 Jul 25 - Aug 24
2005 Aug 5 - Sep 3
2004 Aug 15 - Sep 13
2003 Jul 29 - Aug 27
2002 Aug 9 - Sep 6
2001 Aug 19 - Sep 16
2000 Jul 31 - Aug 28
1999 Aug 11 - Sep 9
1998 Aug 22 - Sep 20
1997 Aug 3 - Sep 1
1996 Aug 14 - Sep 11
1995 Jul 27 - Aug 25

pag kulang pa sabihin nyo ha. kakatamad kasi magbasa ng calendaryo hehe.

good luck.
buy high, sell higher!

stock market abbreviations (for newbies)
http://www.stockmarketpilipinas.com/post...g#pid11738

"when it comes to trading, i'm just barely smart enough to realize that i'm a total idiot. i might be considered stupid, but on the intelligence scale, it puts me comfortably ahead of all the dumber people who thinks they're better than me."


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#10
Hahaha Thanks glenchuy I will make my study now while drinking my beer. That productivity + leisure for me. haha
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